YOU WILL FIND MY COSMODYNAMIC WEATHERFORECAST AND SOLAR SPE DOCUMENTARY FROM NOW ON ON THE PAGES OF GOOGLE BLOG

REPORTING BOUT SEPS SOLAR PROTON EVENTS; those have strong effects on the earth and menkind.

19.03.2023
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last updated on >>

February 25 2023/ 14:55 UTC

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open source research project - - since May 2011-

GLOBAL VOLCANO MAPS

   
   
   

 

THE 25. 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-

LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2023/ 24

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

 

SPECIAL DOCUMENTARY OF SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS

(proton emissions with subsequent electron accumulations and their geophysical effects)
reports about hot spot volcanism, earthquakes,geomagnetic field , natural and technical events, paradox weather, anomalies a.s.o)
 
Note this report will only contain SIGNIFICANT Events as described below ! For general information and daily updates on solar activities and related issuesw select one of the links on the right frame

i

 

20201210: More and more sunspots become again visible on the solar surface The next 11 year sunspot maximum is expectet for 2022- 23. Time to resume observation. please be patient until January 2021, when this page will appear in a new shape

 

click here for the links list of archived previous monthly reports (back to 2010)

 

^ 360° NEAR REAL TIME VIEW ON THE SUN ( STEREO A & B (update, June 2015: stereo behind .is no more functionable)

 

 

 

 

solar event:
           

February- 25- 2023

no report yet...            

BEGIN OF SPE

ISSUE ( by solen.info) SOLAR MAP SOLAR INFO FLARE IMAGE SOHO- SDO SEP IMAGE STEREO AHEAD SEP BEGIN PROTON ARRIVAL (GOES) PROTON MAY: VALUE PROTON DURATION

SEVERENESS

   

20230224/ 20:30 UTC

moderate type IV radio sweep LDE, fast full halo CME. Probably triggered by nearby filament eruption. Proton flux enhancement     20230225- 21:09 NEW EVENT      
ACTVE SOLAR REGION MAJOR X- RAY EVENTS:

EARTH DIRECTED CME EVENTS:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME:

CME IMPACT SIZE ON GOES LATE SEP IMPACT ZONES / LONGITUDES   PROTONS (PHASE I)- ACTIVE ELECTRONS (PHASE II) DURATION FINAL DISCHARGE (PHASE II) :      
PROTON INITIAL VALUE      
AR 13229 M3.7/2B fast asymmetric full halo CME FEB 26-27-2023   starting on Mar 24 and increasing on Mar 25 after 20 UTC= INITIAL value: 7 pfu- IMPACT BEGIN 20230224- 20:38- 20:53 UTC BEGIN: 20230224/ 21 UTC- - 2020228/ 12 UTC        
          main impact longitudes : west of 120° geomagnetic longitude

RISING ABOVE 10 pfu on 20230225

END: 20230228/ 12 UTC

ONGOING NONE YET      
 

REGIONS WITH THEORETIC POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER MAGMATIC HOTSPOT ACTIVITIES AND EARTHQUAKES

Eastern Pacific

Western coast of South an North America

hot spots magma intrusion: Hawaii Yellowstone

 
 

 

 

               

terrestrial event

for all other previous events, click here: 202!            

MAJOR EARTHQUAKE

   

LATEST EARTHQUAKES/ USGS

LATEST EARTHQUAKES /ESMC

       
DATE LOCATION MAGNITUDE DEPTH LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > AFTERQUAKES & .MAGMATIC SWARMS >> TSUNAMI WARNINGS CANCELLED ON MAP DAMAGE REPORTS VIDEOS REMARKS      
M 7.8 - CENTRAL TURKEY - 2023-02-06 01:17:32 UTC unknown 10 km 37.23 N ; 37.02 E until 20230216 thousands of afterquakes up to M 6.7, now diminuishing none ----

catastrophic

2- 3

 

 
                    Deadly earthquake in Turkey and Syria kills more than 120 people with fears casualties will rise  
                       

JANUARY 2023

             
solar event:
           

January- 14- 2023

no report yet...            

BEGIN OF SPE

ISSUE LOCATION SOLAR INFO FLARE IMAGE SOHO- SDO SEP IMAGE STEREO AHEAD SEP BEGIN PROTON ARRIVAL (GOES) PROTON MAY: VALUE PROTON DURATION

SEVERENESS

   

20230110/ 00 UTC

2 event of serial of SOLAR PROTON EVENTs   link   NEW EVENT      
ACTVE SOLAR REGION MAJOR X- RAY EVENTS:

EARTH DIRECTED CME EVENTS:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME:

CME IMPACT SIZE ON GOES LATESEP IMPACT ZONES / LONGITUDES         PROTONS (PHASE I)- ACTIVE ELECTRONS (PHASE II) DURATION FINAL DISCHARGE (PHASE II) :      
PROTON INITIAL VALUE      
            20230115 below treshold of 10 pfu. increasing ongoing          
                  NONE YET      
               

terrestrial events

for all other previous events, click here: 2021            

MAJOR EARTHQUAKE

   

LATEST EARTHQUAKES/ USGS

LATEST EARTHQUAKES /ESMC

       
DATE LOCATION MAGNITUDE DEPTH LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > AFTERQUAKES & .MAGMATIC SWARMS >> TSUNAMI WARNINGS CANCELLED ON MAP DAMAGE REPORTS VIDEOS REMARKS      
M 6.8 - SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA - 2023-01-20 22:09:38 UTC 586 km 26.79 S ; 63.14 W the locations of the prequakes suggest the quakes related to thr ee hotspot supervolcano calderas nearby (click to see map( none   propably magmatic          
                               

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

NAME

 

ALERT LEVEL

REGION:

REGIONal MAP:

LOCATION (long/lat)

LOCAL SURVEY

GOOGLE EARTH

WEBCAM

REPORTS

VIDEOS

  CONTINUING REPORTS  

20221128

                       

20221012

                           
               

 

 

 

   
   

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL SEAQUAKE PARAMETERS: LOCATION TIME LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE MAGNITUDE: DEPTH : AFTERQUAKES ( same day) AFTERQUAKES: ( ONLY > M 6.0)    
DATA BY EMSC)                  
    reports by: US TSUNAMI WARNING CENTERS    
TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER ( ISSUED WARNINGS : NOAA/ PTWC REPORT ISSUED ON:

 

ACTIVE WARNING ( YES/ NO): cancelled CANCELLED AT : 129 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021    
EVALUATION BY NOAA/ PTWC ( DETAILS)

 

   
STRONGEST MEASURED ("INITIAL) TSUNAMI WAVE
LOCATION OF ORIGIN ---------- GAUGE COORDINATES ---- TIME OF MEASURE:  > ----------- MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHT > 1- 3 meters MAXIWAVE PERIOD ( Minute)  >> -----
LOCATION OF ORIGIN   GAUGE COORDINATES   TIME OF MEASURE:  >   MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHT >   MAXIWAVE PERIOD ( Minute)  >>  
   
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVALS >
ESTIMATED TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL LOCATION >
-- -
REGION >
--------
 
COORDINATES>
-----
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES >
----
ESTIMATED TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL LOCATION >
----E
REGION >
------
 
COORDINATES >
7-----
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES >
----
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR:    
related files         electron flux during event                
further evelopments >
                       
INITIAL SEAQUAKE PARAMETERS: LOCATION TIME LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE MAGNITUDE: DEPTH : AFTERQUAKES ( same day) AFTERQUAKES: ( ONLY > M 6.0)    
DATA BY EMSC) KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND 2021-03-04 19:28:35 UTC 29.54 S ; 177.28 W M 8.1 25 km   more than 20    
    reports by: US TSUNAMI WARNING CENTERS    
TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER ( ISSUED WARNINGS : NOAA/ PTWC REPORT ISSUED ON:

2023 UTC THU MAR 4 2021

ACTIVE WARNING ( YES/ NO): none CANCELLED AT : 1322 UTC FRI MAR 5 2021    
EVALUATION BY NOAA/ PTWC ( DETAILS)

 

   
STRONGEST MEASURED ("INITIAL) TSUNAMI WAVE
LOCATION OF ORIGIN ---------- GAUGE COORDINATES ---- TIME OF MEASURE:  > ----------- MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHT > 1- 3 meters MAXIWAVE PERIOD ( Minute)  >> -----
LOCATION OF ORIGIN   GAUGE COORDINATES   TIME OF MEASURE:  >   MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHT >   MAXIWAVE PERIOD ( Minute)  >>  
   
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVALS >
ESTIMATED TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL LOCATION >
-- -
REGION >
--------
 
COORDINATES>
-----
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES >
----
ESTIMATED TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL LOCATION >
----E
REGION >
------
 
COORDINATES >
7-----
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES >
----
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR:    
                               
                               
     

 

 

 

 

 

read about this project:

The project startet as a documentary comparing and evaluating data of all typical sun spot features with geophysical events during the last 11 year sun spot cycly peaking in 2012- 14, using data images and measurements from the huge solar satellite based observation project the NASA had started at begin of this 24. observed solar sunspot cycle.

 

this huge research projct could not solve the basic questions about the phenomenon of sunspots and raised as always more question than those those cpoud be answered . At least it delivered what it should . solar and geophzsical data to establish a first space weather report necessary to protect high sensitive instruments built into satellites and airlanes as well as ground based ailway and electrivity networks (compare Carrington event.

posible effects on weather volcanism earthquakes activity were not part of the NASA mission, but became an interesting object for me, where bz the data provided by were very useful

You can find this documentary by clicking on erchives above.

Main objects of observation were>

solar flares

solar prominences and filament eruptions

coronal holes

solar particle events

To make it short After all , some theories about strong effects sunspot activities such as strong x class solar flares would have on the Earth turned out to be rather NECTLECTABLE RESP.MUCH weaker than expected , while others such as solar particle events * SPE could put the earth upside down. NASA first commented in a report called " a new type of solar eruption" a serial of proton events beginning on Nov 11 2004 with the last strong eruption in February 2005 with " they can do everything". The theories about them are rather poor, They had to delete that comment afterwards But meanwhile new satellites were put in place for better eobservations.

To give an example : Intensive comparation of stronger solar Proton events and earthquake volcanism data and reports showed there is a clear "coincidencc" ( a term that does not include or require further theories) between the two disastrous Tsunamis on 20041226 on Java as well as the 9.o magnitude earthquake and Tsunami near Fukushima Japan on 20110311. The deadly Tsunami 2004 near Java was likely caused by a strong magma intrusion from the Hot spot on java (Thomson Jule effect= that liftet the seaground up for 100o meters along a st5retch of 1000 km!!

At the end of the 24-. sun spot cycle this statistical ecvaluation and documentary had turned into a project that focusses on these Solar particle events ( Proton eruptions and subsequent electron accumulations)

   

O

                        ^REAL TIME SOLAR CORONA (SoHO)    
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
VOLCANO / HOTSPOT ACTIVITIES- EARTHQUAKES- (THUNDER- )STORMS- RAPIDE (PERMAICE) MELTDOWNS/ METHANHYDRATES- INDUCED CURRENTS (TECH) - WHALE BEACHINGS- OTHER...

So first of all I want to explain, what this report is all about

1 What is a solar particle event?

(wikipedia)A solar particle event or solar proton event (SPE), or prompt proton event, occurs when particles (mostly protons) emitted by the Sun become accelerated either close to the Sun during a flare or in interplanetary space by coronal mass ejection shocks. The events can include other nuclei such as helium ions and HZE ions. These particles cause multiple effects. They can penetrate the Earth's magnetic field and cause ionization in the ionosphere. The effect is similar to auroral events, except that protons rather than electrons are involved. Energetic protons are a significant radiation hazard to spacecraft and astronauts.

medical research (NASA)

archive of solar particle events since 1796 (NASA)

Harvard

>explanation follows

what do we need to detect solar particle (proton) events?

protons do not have electric energy and do not sprtead electrons or photons , Thus the protons events themselves v when on the occure on the sun are not visible within the frequency range of the most satellite teslecsopes images on board of SDO and SOHO. This is why Proton events are easily overseen.

 

What becomes visible on SOGHO and SDO images are the protons thrown into interplanetary space when they hit the objectives of telesscopes where they leave light traces or "snow" on the images

 

While STEREO BEHIND is dead since years , STEREO AHEAD still sends signals. It has with LASCO 2 as the only satellite also an infrared telescope that can show the the huge amounts of hot sun gazes accelerated by the proton explosion itself , that happens below the solar surface . The highly accelerated protons can reach the speed oF light and cause strong SECONDARY eruptions AND FLARES , while they penetrate the outer solar gas hull.

 

the other instruments are on the geostationary GOES 13 and 15 satellites those measure the integral proton flux into our geomagnetic field as well as the subsequent electron accumulation following each proton event:

 

 

NASA STEREO HEAD / near real time=
NASA- Integral Proton Flux / near real time=
NASA- Integral Electrone Flux / near real time=

 

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data for this reports and forecasts are exclusively taken from reliable sources such as NASA, NOAA and others.

all forecasts are without guarantee! Alle Vorhersagen sind ohne Gewaehr!

provided by:

 

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